- As a matter of fact, in connection with the crisis, logistics companies had one problem - to survive in the market, to preserve their working teams and the volume of services.
This is an extremely difficult task, due to the fact that the market has declined significantly. This year the trend will continue. Accordingly, if the market shrinks, then, a priori, not all companies will be able to save volumes, someone will have to leave the market, someone will cut staff, someone will sell non-core assets.
Also, the problem of logistics is that customers have the same difficulties, and all that the client is interested in right now is reducing logistics costs, and these costs, due to the underdevelopment of the market and infrastructure, make up up to 20% of the production cost, which is twice the average of developed in terms of logistic countries.
The problem is that clients are in chorus asking for a deferment of payments in 30-60 days and agree to work only with companies that can afford it.
There is an acute problem of competition, especially from large multinational players, who at the expense of globality make a profit not only in Russia and can more effectively redistribute it, can make losses on some wounds, retaining a share, have access to cheap financing abroad.
- How did the introduction of sanctions and anti-sanctions affect the market? Do you have to rebuild traffic streams now?
- The introduction of any sanctions is always detrimental and always affects negatively. This is a short answer. For it cannot be otherwise: logistics companies, like any other, cannot influence the external factors of doing business, and political things influence the economy. It is much easier to deal with economic issues, the competitiveness of their products or services, business innovation, etc., than to deal with overcoming administrative and other barriers. Sanctions redistribute flows and force customers to rebuild logistics: companies purchasing in Europe start purchasing in Asia, China, and from there logistics is completely different: they used to transport by car, now they started to carry by sea, it takes longer, they try the railway, etc. Logistics companies are not easy, and they must be flexible in order to retain the client: if someone had good consolidated cargo lines across Europe to Russia with consolidation in the Baltic States, and now customers have moved to China, they need to quickly restructure, find new partners, establish connections so as not to lose customers. If the logistics company is not able to quickly change its business process, the client will go to another, the one who previously worked and specialized in the same China, for example. Perhaps China is not the best example of diversification, since everything has worked there historically, but China is no longer the main factory of the world and production by international corporations is transferred to other regions - Bangladesh, Burma, the Philippines, etc. - since so far in the world economy what is going on crisis phenomena. Therefore, it is doubly more difficult for Russian logistic operators to reorganize and immediately start working in new markets.
- ACEX can help companies?
- And here, continuing to answer the previous question, we can say how ACEX can help companies. ACEX, as an alliance, was engaged in combining resources, technologies, and competencies of companies of various profiles, various areas of logistics and transport in Russia and abroad. Logistics routes and supply chains from all regions of the world and all types of transport were built and tested for different companies of the group and different customers. It took ten years to create the first Russian international alliance with connections in all countries with the strongest local players with both local and regional and global coverage. Relations and relationships are built within the alliance, and the ACEX is ready to help any partner and any company as soon as possible to organize a supply chain from any region, from where or where his client wants to deliver the goods. Moreover, ACEX is ready and provides consulting services in various markets, since it has competent partners everywhere. Companies belonging to the alliance become partners formally and due to the fact that ACEX as an alliance knows the strengths of each and the level of capabilities and competencies, the group can recommend the right partner for working together and building a new business process. ACEX can guarantee that the partners of the alliance will work with each other as partners and there is no risk of client theft, which everyone is so afraid of now, because in a period of fierce competition, the struggle goes by all available means. ACEX is also present at various venues, in groups and associations, in the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, working on business innovations and creating joint products and projects, for which you can recommend the members of the alliance. ACECH can also be ready to help companies that are experiencing difficulties and are on the verge of bankruptcy and withdrawal from the market, supporting them with resources, and accepting clients to a partner company for service on favorable terms. This is not new in the market, but within the framework of the alliance there is also the possibility of sharing resources, which reduces the costs of each and allows you to keep your business. ACEX also, as an alliance, provides a platform for marketing support to participating companies, gives them the opportunity to show customers that they are part of a large whole, have support from the group. accepting clients for servicing to an affiliate company on favorable terms. This is not new in the market, but within the framework of the alliance there is also the possibility of sharing resources, which reduces the costs of each and allows you to keep your business. ACEX also, as an alliance, provides a platform for marketing support to participating companies, gives them the opportunity to show customers that they are part of a large whole, have support from the group. accepting clients for servicing to an affiliate company on favorable terms. This is not new in the market, but within the framework of the alliance there is also the possibility of sharing resources, which reduces the costs of each and allows you to keep your business. ACEX also, as an alliance, provides a platform for marketing support to participating companies, gives them the opportunity to show customers that they are part of a large whole, have support from the group.
- What kind of assistance does the industry expect from the state?
- From the state, as usual, everyone is waiting for support, investment in projects and infrastructure, improvement of roads and airports, removal of administrative and customs barriers, facilitation of work, adoption of incentive laws for the industry, such as laws on aircraft leasing or on introducing single window mode in ports or airports. The state is a very important component of the business process in Russia because it owns natural monopolies, for example, railways, sets and regulates tariffs, sets customs rules. You can say for a long time what kind of relief should be introduced in customs regulation and what barriers should be removed in order to facilitate the process of movement of foreign trade cargoes. This is the most basic thing that the industry expects from the state. Well, not to mention the simplification of tax legislation on the regulation of foreign economic activity, which in its current version forces companies to keep large staff of accountants for timely and correct accounting of all transactions. However, innovations in 2015 do not help, but on the contrary, increase the administrative costs of enterprises in the industry.
- Can we say that in the near future there will be a restructuring of logistics flows? Your forecast?
- In some variant, restructuring will occur, a part of cargo will be transferred from one transport to another, cheaper. This is already happening, cargoes from railway transport are switching to road transport, cargoes from air transport are switching to sea transport, etc. Reverse movement is also possible, but in a smaller volume. In my understanding, the market is also moving towards the concentration of logistic flows in the consumption centers, and not in the centers of infrastructure availability. Earlier in the USSR there was the State Planning Committee, which regulated how much, where and what products and goods should be consumed and where they should be produced and there was a centralized distribution, the state allocated a budget for the construction of a particular infrastructure at airports, ports, warehouses, etc. In the past 25 years, the situation was different, the state stopped investing and planning, the market began to do it, and began to do it where there was money, gradually concentrating all logistic flows in Moscow, where warehouses and terminals were built and where 70% of Russia's total cargo traffic was processed, while not 70% was consumed. As a result, we have congestion in the Moscow region with logistics, while in other large regions, where the population is not less, logistics is undeveloped. Therefore, in recent years, there has been a tendency towards the development of regional logistics in Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, and Vladivostok. Production clusters of the automotive industry appeared (going through difficult times now) in the Volga region and Tatarstan, Kaluga, etc., FEZ appeared in a number of regions, for example, in Ulyanovsk, where large manufacturers built factories, warehouses were built in Yekaterinburg. Already de facto, the flows began to be redistributed from the center towards the regions, but now, due to the crisis and financial instability, this process can be slowed down and everything will again be concentrated in Moscow. In the regions, there is still a shortage of large and strong multimodal logistics operators, which have their central capacities there. In most cases, all Moscow operators, all Western companies have their centers in Moscow. This is objective, it is connected with the concentration in Moscow of commercial and industrial capacities and a large consumer market. And from Moscow all regions are already supplied. It is difficult to predict how soon the situation can change, but it will objectively change, Russia has no other way than to “grow Siberia,” as Lomonosov said. however, now due to the crisis and financial instability, this process can be slowed down and again everything will be concentrated in Moscow. In the regions, there is still a shortage of large and strong multimodal logistics operators, which have their central capacities there. In most cases, all Moscow operators, all Western companies have their centers in Moscow. This is objective, it is connected with the concentration in Moscow of commercial and industrial capacities and a large consumer market. And from Moscow all regions are already supplied. It is difficult to predict how soon the situation can change, but it will objectively change, Russia has no other way than to “grow Siberia,” as Lomonosov said. however, now due to the crisis and financial instability, this process can be slowed down and again everything will be concentrated in Moscow. In the regions, there is still a shortage of large and strong multimodal logistics operators, which have their central capacities there. In most cases, all Moscow operators, all Western companies have their centers in Moscow. This is objective, it is connected with the concentration in Moscow of commercial and industrial capacities and a large consumer market. And from Moscow all regions are already supplied. It is difficult to predict how soon the situation can change, but it will objectively change, Russia has no other way than to “grow Siberia,” as Lomonosov said. In the regions, there is still a shortage of large and strong multimodal logistics operators, which have their central capacities there. In most cases, all Moscow operators, all Western companies have their centers in Moscow. This is objective, it is connected with the concentration in Moscow of commercial and industrial capacities and a large consumer market. And from Moscow all regions are already supplied. It is difficult to predict how soon the situation can change, but it will objectively change, Russia has no other way than to “grow Siberia,” as Lomonosov said. In the regions, there is still a shortage of large and strong multimodal logistics operators, which have their central capacities there. In most cases, all Moscow operators, all Western companies have their centers in Moscow. This is objective, it is connected with the concentration in Moscow of commercial and industrial capacities and a large consumer market. And from Moscow all regions are already supplied. It is difficult to predict how soon the situation can change, but it will objectively change, Russia has no other way than to “grow Siberia,” as Lomonosov said. And from Moscow all regions are already supplied. It is difficult to predict how soon the situation can change, but it will objectively change, Russia has no other way than to “grow Siberia,” as Lomonosov said. And from Moscow all regions are already supplied. It is difficult to predict how soon the situation can change, but it will objectively change, Russia has no other way than to “grow Siberia,” as Lomonosov said.
As for the restructuring of logistic flows by type of transport, I think that everything will remain approximately in the same proportions, since they have been preserved for the last 20 years, plus or minus, in the same ratios. Here is a table for Russia:
Road transport went up by 7%, but the railway went up by 2.3%. However, a priori railway transport is not competitive with road transport of goods over distances of less than 1500 km, and railway transport takes longer if the cargo does not go as part of a direct container train, which needs volume to form. I also want to note that according to the trend of 2015 with regard to international road transport, we see not a growth, but a decrease in tariffs, since their indexation is carried out in euros. In ruble terms, tariffs, of course, rose, fell in euros. But railway transport is still far from complete competitiveness. In addition, by rail the cargo can be delivered from the station to the station, and then you still need to carry it by road, and it is not always convenient to do two overloads at the point of loading into a wagon or container and at the point of unloading, these are additional costs and risks of damage to the goods. Therefore, it is still profitable to carry by rail over long distances, I would say not even 1,500 km, but from 4,000 km.
- Tell us what is happening in the air transportation market.
- The air transportation market is relatively small in the total volume of the transport services market, air transport in Russia carries less than 1% of cargo turnover, primarily perishable goods, mail, small long-distance cargoes, urgent cargoes, cargoes requiring special transportation conditions.
In general, by the end of 2014, the industry grew by 3.5% in freight turnover, and if Russia is in the global trend, then by 2020 it is expected to grow to 5% per year.
This is not bad in itself, since in 2014, in fact, only air freight grew, all the rest fell in volume.
Nevertheless, due to the crisis and the reduction of the commodity base in the current year, we are already seeing a decline in domestic flights, which is associated with many factors, not only with the price, but also with the infrastructure and problems of airlines. However, the total cargo turnover of Russian airlines for international transportation is growing, and first of all the share of international transit in the overall market structure is growing, according to Rosaviatsia, in January — February the growth was more than 20% compared to the same period last year. But, despite the fact that there is growth, in our opinion, it is not directly related to the situation on the Russian market, but is connected with a change in the world market situation, the redistribution of freight traffic between Europe and the USA at the beginning of the year from sea to air due to the strike of dockers, as well as the growth of trade from Europe to the USA in connection with the depreciating euro and, accordingly, European goods, part of which (cargo traffic. - Gudok.ru) due to the globalization of the economy and the availability of Russian airlines to international markets went, so to speak, to our operators (talking about the growth of ErBridgeCargo in January — February 2015. - Gudok.ru ). In general, the further trend of the market is not yet clear, air travel from the US to Russia has declined very significantly, and if earlier they accounted for 5% of the market, now they do not exceed 2%. The reasons are the same: sanctions, the growth of the dollar, a decline in business activity. From China, the lion's share of cargo goes by road and rail through Vladivostok, the share of air is also low, and freight rates have not decreased much. A number of western airlines leave the Russian market, such as, for example, “Pacific Pacific” since June, a number reduces the number of flights. Therefore, we observe, in principle, some redistribution of flows, and so far the volumes are not particularly reduced. ErBridgeCargo remains the market leader with an almost 60% share of freight turnover, 70% of which is international transit through Sheremetyevo and transport between third countries. There is a trend and there are projects for the development of regional multimodal hubs, in particular, in Novosibirsk. Perhaps this will allow to change the cargo traffic, attract more transit cargo to Russia. By analogy with the Russian Railways, which closely transit and increased the number of direct container trains from China to Europe from two dozen to two hundred per year based on transit cargo, the same opportunity exists for the aviation industry, which is waiting for its integrator by analogy with Russian Railways. The ACEX Alliance is actively working in this direction,
https://www.gudok.ru/transport/?ID=1261674