As part of the annual research “The market of logistics outsourcing. Results of 2017-2018 and forecast up to 2022 ”MAResearch agency experts analyzed the current situation and development prospects of the global and Russian transport and logistics services market (TLU). According to MAResearch, the total volume of the Russian TLU market in 2018 will be 3,567 billion rubles, the nominal growth rate will drop to 6.6%. The data for January-October 2018 show a slowdown in the dynamics of commercial freight turnover and freight traffic (up to 3.7% and 1.5%, respectively), which will affect the annual performance of the transport industry.
The growth rate of rail and road transport has declined, while there has been an increase in freight turnover as a result of an increase in the range of traffic and the reorientation of export cargo traffic to the APR countries. Continued decline in traffic in inland water and sea transport. After a double-digit growth rate in 2017, air transport shows an increase in freight turnover and freight and mail traffic volumes only by 1%.
The slowdown in freight growth is due to the deterioration of export conditions on the world market (the US-China trade war begins to influence) and the stagnation of domestic demand in anticipation of the expansion of anti-Russian sanctions. The low dynamics of the foreign trade cargo traffic affects the cargo turnover of the ports of the Russian Federation, the volume of which in 2018 will increase by only 4%, compared with 9% a year earlier.
In the segment of warehousing services, the trends prevailing in 2017 remain, namely, a further decline in rental rates amid a moderate increase in the commissioning of new facilities for commercial use and an increase in the occupancy of warehouses. At the same time, there is a decrease in the share of warehouse services with high added value due to the refusal of many tenant companies to outsource to “save” funds, or simply unwillingness to transfer the warehouse to third party management due to insufficient competencies of most Russian logistics providers.
According to MAResearch, in 2019 the growth rate of the TLU market will not exceed 3.3%. Among the main factors that will have a negative impact on the market dynamics in the coming year, we should note the risks associated with the expansion of anti-Russian sanctions and their spread to the leading companies and banks of the country (VTB, Sberbank, etc.). It is also possible that new transport holdings and logistics operators working with companies that have fallen under sanctions will be included in the SDN List.
The realization of these risks will lead to further devaluation of the ruble, an increase in the cost of loans, a fall in consumer and investment demand, the bankruptcy of a number of companies with high levels of debt and liabilities in foreign currency, and a slowdown in economic growth rates up to the country's recession. According to MAResearch, it will take at least 2 years to adapt to the new conditions, which will postpone the beginning of the acceleration of the growth of the TLU market for 2021-2022.
This scenario is regarded as pessimistic; if it is implemented, the main indicators of the socio-economic development of the country and the TLU market will be reduced by 0.4-0.5 percentage points. compared with the conservative scenario of the Ministry of Economic Development.